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CME Group set to introduce ETH to BTC Ratio futures

According to the announcement, the settlement of Ether/Bitcoin Ratio futures will be in cash, based on the final settlement price of CME Group’s Ether

ETH $1,892  futures divided by the final settlement price of CME Group’s Bitcoin

BTC tickers down $30,972 futures. Moreover, this new contract will adhere to the identical listing cycle observed in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures and Ether futures contracts.

Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group’s global head of cryptocurrency products, emphasized the potential for relative value trading opportunities between Ether and Bitcoin. Vicioso highlighted that while these two assets have historically displayed high correlation, their market dynamics may now vary, making it possible to capitalize on their performance differences. He added: 

“With the addition of Ether/Bitcoin Ratio futures, investors will be able to capture ether and bitcoin exposure in a single trade, without needing to take a directional view. This new contract will help create opportunities for a broad array of clients looking to hedge positions or execute other trading strategies, all in an efficient, cost-effective manner.”

On April 17, CME Group announced plans to expand its cryptocurrency options by introducing new options for standard and micro-sized Bitcoin and Ether contracts. These new contracts were set to become available from May 22, pending regulatory review.

The expansion included daily expiries from Monday to Friday, allowing traders to better manage short-term price risks. This move aimed to offer market participants increased precision and flexibility in managing Bitcoin’s and Ether’s short-term price risks amid heightened volatility in the digital asset sector.

Crypto enthusiasts are wrong to target Gary Gensler

The animus of the entire crypto world is focused on Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler.

Critics argue that he paints cryptocurrencies with too broad a brush. They argue that he gaslights well-meaning entrepreneurs by encouraging them to “come in and register,” knowing his process is set up for them to fail. They argue he knows new rules are needed but prefers to enforce impractical rules in order to stifle the industry altogether. And, of course, under his leadership, the SEC filed an enforcement action against Coinbase, arguing several top coins, including Polygon’s MATIC

MATIC $0.6553 , Solana’s SOL

SOL tickers down $17 and others are securities largely because their issuance involved capital formation, despite their necessity in operating underlying networks.

And it’s not just naysayers in the peanut gallery. The campaign is costing the United States dearly. Venture capital investment in the U.S. crypto industry has fallen this year compared to the European Union. America is losing its lead, and time is of the essence.

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The cynical explanation for Gensler’s position is political. Gensler taught a course on blockchain at MIT and is on tape explaining how not all tokens are securities, so he presumably understands the nuances of digital assets. Rather, he is playing dumb to implicitly support the agenda of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is mobilizing an “anti-crypto army” and has been informally deputized by the administration of President Joe Biden to define crypto policy. If Biden wins the presidency again, perhaps this will help Gensler earn an appointment as Treasury secretary.

In response, lawmakers are piling on with bills proposing to fire him. Representatives Warren Davidson and Tom Emmer introduced the “SEC Stabilization Act,” which proposes removing Gensler and restructuring the agency to make it less partisan.

Bitcoin holds $30K as bulls flaunt their advantage in Friday’s $715M BTC options expiry

Bitcoin’s 15% rally toward $30,300 between June 19 and June 21 caught most traders by surprise, triggering $125 million in liquidations of leveraged short futures contracts. Narrowing down the trigger for the rally is complicated, but some analysts point to the potential inflow of institutional investors if BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) application gets regulatory approval.

ARK Invest CEO and chief investment officer Cathie Wood explained the rationale for the firm’s bullishness on the Bitcoin

BTC $29,929 price, specifically its $1 million target. According to Wood, even in a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can still outperform by offering a solution to the traditional financial system’s counterparty risk.

Furthermore, the negative regulatory pressure eased on June 16 after Binance was able to strike a temporary agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to avoid a potential asset freeze. The event further cemented Bitcoin bears’ opportunity to profit on the $715 million weekly BTC options expiry.

Bears made a mistake when BTC’s price dropped below $25,000

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $26,300 on June 10, fueling bearish bets by traders using options contracts. Such a level was only recouped on June 16, which explains why bears have concentrated their bets on Bitcoin trading below $27,000.

Deribit Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 23. Source: Deribit

The 0.82 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $415 million call (buy) options and the $300 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower, as bears were caught by surprise as Bitcoin gained 10% in two days.

For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains near $29,800 at 8:00 am UTC on June 23, there will be only $5 million in put options. This distinction arises since the right to sell Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 is rendered void if BTC trades above that on the expiry.

Bulls are in a good position to capture a $250 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 23 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies depending on the expiration price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $27,000 and $28,000: 3,500 calls vs. 1,200 puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $60 million.
  • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 7,300 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call instruments by $195 million.
  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 8,600 calls vs. 100 puts. The bulls’ advantage increases to $250 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $31,000: 10,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls have total control, profiting $310 million.

This rough estimate considers only put options in bearish bets and call options in neutral-to-bullish trades. Nonetheless, this oversimplification excludes more complex investment strategies. A trader, for example, could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but this effect is difficult to estimate.

Curve pool imbalance triggers USDT depeg concerns: Finance Redefined

Welcome to Finance Redefined, your weekly dose of essential decentralized finance (DeFi) insights — a newsletter crafted to bring you the most significant developments from the past week.

On June 15, an imbalance in Curve Finance’s 3pool led to a Tether

USDT

$1.00 depeg scare as the stablecoin’s weightage in the pool rose above 70%, leading to heavy selling. Tether’s chief technology officer claimed these market conditions are stress tests for the stablecoin and played down the depeg “FUD.”

In other news, a crypto trading bot programmed to execute arbitrage trades borrowed $200 million to make just over $3 in profit.

Uniswap, the decentralized exchange protocol, released its version 4 code on June 13, making way for new liquidity pools.

DeFi lending platform Sturdy Finance was drained for $800,000. The protocol’s team offered a $100,000 bounty for returning the funds and reopened its stablecoin market on June 16. In another exploit, the Hashflow protocol was drained for $600,000; however, Hashflow assured users they would be “made whole.”

The top 100 DeFi tokens had another bearish week, with most of the crypto tokens trading at three-month lows.

Curve pool imbalance triggers USDT depeg concerns, Tether CTO calls it FUD

USDT slightly deviated from its United States dollar peg on June 15 due to an imbalance in Curve’s 3pool. The price of USDT fell by 0.3% to around 0.997 as its weightage in the curve 3pool increased to over 70% from the usual 33.1%.

Curve’s 3pool is a stablecoin pool for decentralized finance holding a massive amount of liquidity in the three top stablecoins: USDT, USD Coin

USDC

$1.00 and Dai

DAI tickers down

$1.00 . A significant rise in the weightage of a particular stablecoin in the pool indicates heavy selling of that asset.

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